A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO JOE BIDEN ON THE WAY TO A SECOND TERM.  The operative word is "inflation."  It ain't over.  From CNBC:

Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising shelter, gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.

Markets were volatile following the release, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 200 points at the open and heading lower.

Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December.

Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7%, respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1%, respectively.

Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report that adjusts wages for inflation.

While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.

That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.

“Inflation is easing but the path to lower inflation will not likely be smooth,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The Fed will not make decisions based on just one report but clearly the risks are rising that inflation will not cool fast enough for the Fed’s liking.”

In recent days, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has talked about “disinflationary” forces at play, but January’s numbers show the central bank probably still has work to do.

COMMENT:  What is often not discussed by the talking heads is that any inflation has a lasting effect.  When the Biden White House experiences a good month, and says that inflation is slowing, it's skipping over the damage done by the inflation that has already occurred.  I haven't seen any decline in food prices, have you?  They just go up, and families will continue to pay them.

February 14, 2023